Thursday, January 17, 2008

PMA 2008 Speculation and Rumors (PMA and beyond) (updated)

Introduction
With PMA 2008 happening earlier than usual, it's never too early to start speculating :) The 2008 PMA will take place between late January and early February, much earlier than its usual calendar spot. What does that mean? It means that the announcements will be compressed in a shorter period of time.

Of course manufacturers don't have to announce at or by PMA 2008, but the common practice was to announce products in the time leading up to PMA, so by the time PMA starts, the new products can be showcased on the floor, one way or another (behind glass, mockups, prototypes, vaporware, working models, production models, etc). This could also mean that some manufacturers may have held off announcing non-mass market products for PMA 2008 instead of dropping them on us in late 2007. Maybe.


These are rumors and speculations and predictions
In case it wasn't clear in the title, this post is a blend of rumors/rumours and speculation and predictions for PMA 2008 and beyond. More on this at the bottom of this post!


Who are we waiting for?

  • Leica: The buzz is on an M8 upgrade, instead of a new upgrade. See rumors below. How about other Leicas? We only had one "Leicasonic" in 2007. Is Leica giving up on rebranded compacts?
  • Sony: We also know there is a Sony W300 model coming up. We cringe at the thought of 14mp or 16mp or a gazillion megapixels!
  • Panasonic: They had eight new today, but none above the mid-range. Already the FX100 is on clearance at OneCall at $280. Will we see more advanced cameras from Panasonic at PMA or are they done until later this year?
  • More from Canon or do we have to wait for Photokina 2008?
  • What about Ricoh? HP?


    Latest Rumors


    NEW! Not a new camera, but the Imaging Insider is planning a new website on photography. What will it be about? Any leaks? Rumors? Speculation? We don't know yet!

    NEW!!! Well PMA 2008 is now over. Time to start looking towards ...Photokina 2008, in Koln.

    NEW!!! Photography Bay has found an interesting quote from a Canon rep posted on Gizmodo, indirectly hinting at a Canon 5D Mark II in 2008

    NEW!!! dpreview live-blogging from the Sony event at PMA 2008: Sony A900 flagship DSLR coming in 2008! It will be using the 25mp Sony CMOS 35mm full frame sensor just announced.

    NEW!!! The Adorama News Desk talks about the Leica M8 hardware upgrade program (1200 euro) and also mentions the possibility of a new body, the Leica M8a perhaps at Photokina 2008. Current M8 owners wouldn't be left out though in such a scenario. For some more details be sure to check the latest at the Adorama News Desk

    Not a rumor, but Mason Resnick has a few snapshots from the PMA 2008 trade show floor.

    NEW!!! Amin of AminFoto has an update on Leica. See the comments in this post for more details.

    NEW!!! Pentax USA rep hint-talks of a potential flagship DSLR in 2009 from Pentax - details at Underexposed, a CNet blog.

    NEW!!! Not a rumor, New Sony 25mp 35mm Full Frame CMOS Sensor officially announced! Also new from Sony the A350 and the A300 and a couple of lenses!

    NEW!!! Pentax Europe Interview - KxD (K1D?) a possible future model

    NEW!!! Sigma updates Sigma DP1 website!

    NEW!!! Amin of AminFoto has spotted a rumor in the Rangefinder Forum saying that Leica will not release an M9, but rather offer an upgrade to the M8 for 1200 euro. Details in the comments section. An update on the Leica rumors at Amin Foto! This is an interesting development for Leicaphiles!

    NEW!!! More on the Sony A300, A350 and price drops here at 1001NC.

    NEW!!! According to the Imaging Insider, Panasonic is presenting their Lumix 2008 PMA line-up at PMA tonight (Monday January 28, 2008, Vegas time)

    NEW!!! PDN Pulse summarizes the talk of a brand new Medium Format Film SLR from Fuji. Yes, FILM, not digital camera, and Medium Format!

    NEW!!! Photography Bay talks Sony A300 and A350 rumors. Hot rumor based on Sony Style?

    NEW! Northern Light talks Canon 50D rumors

    NEW!!! Nikon D60 with three new lenses leaked!. Includes the rumored 16-85 DX VR AF-S, a macro and a PC lens.

    NEW! Is this a Nikon D60 battery, a typo or clever marketing?

    NEW!!! A dpreview forum user reports that we may see a DSLR above the K20D and one below the K200D. This and more from the Dubai and Paris press events.

    NEW!!! Pentax rep talks 645D and high end lenses to the BJoP. Details at the OK 1000 Pentax Blog!

    NEW!!! A dpreview forum user has been digging around and found a mention not only of a Sony Alpha A300 DSLR but also a A350 DSLR. Would these be twin cameras, with a simple differentiation? Different sensors? With or without a specific feature, eg LiveView? Or would they be totally different cameras? We do not know! We have to wait until PMA 2008 or the next leak :)

    NEW DSLRs ALERT: No longer rumors, the Pentax K20D, Pentax K200D and five new lenses were officially announced. And some details on the new 14.6mp CMOS sensor.

    NEW!!! Photography Blog notes a post on Sony's own gadget blog that more stuff is coming from Sony at PMA 2008.

    NEW!!! Nikon Watch may have the PMA 2008 scoop on new Nikons, Coolpixies and DSLRs alike!

    NEW!!! To quote a Radiohead song, when a leak becomes a lake, we have three full size Pentax K20D and K200D advertisement pictures, along with a lens-line up ad!

    NEW!!! Photography Bay finds Canon 450D evidence on Amazon in the form of rings! Be sure to check Photography Bay for the latest news and rumors as they break!

    NEW!!! Leakage from Russia and Korea on the Pentax K20D and Samsung GX20

    NEW!!! UberGizmo reports on possible Canon 3D rumors. More at Crunch Gear, Electronista, and many other places.

    NEW!!! Is this the Fuji Finepix S100 Pro? A Finepix or Fakepix?

    NEW!!! Amin Foto has picked up some juicy rumors on what Leica is working on from the RF forum. Rumors for cameras for both the M-series and the R-series!

    NEW!!! Is this the rumored Samsung 14mp APS-C CMOS sensor? (in German, we can't read German, so we don't know!)

    NEW!!! Canon 3D and 5D Mark II rumors at Photography Bay

    NEW!!! Nikon Watch deliberates on whether the Nikon digital rangefinder rumor has any legs.

    NEW!!! Nikon Watch has a round-up of PMA Nikon lens rumors inspired by a forum discussion.

    NEW!!! Photography Bay tracks down latest Canon Digital Rebel 450D rumor

    NEW!!! Pentax K20D and Samsung GX20 rumors get a credibility boost by Adorama News Desk and Wired's Gadget Lab Blog.

    NEW!!! Japan runs out of Nikon D40x (Photography Blog reports PMA Newswire story)

    NEW! dpreview predictions and hopes for PMA 2008

    NEW!! A recap of the 27 new digital cameras announced at CES 2008. And an evaluation of our CES 2008 predictions.

    Sony Alpha A300, A500, A900 rumors

    Countdown to the Pentax Dubai announcement (turned out a bridge to nowhere)

    Potential Sony Alpha A200 leak via Sony Luxemburg. Update! This was officially announced at CES 2008

    Our discussion of Mason Resnick's Ten Predictions for 2008, including the new Kodak sensor and a potential new digital rangefinder in 2008, along with new focusing technology.

    New Nikon lens leaked? Nikkor AF-S 16-85mm VR

    Nikon D60 rumors and possible pictures of the Pentax K200D


    Will Leica produce their version of the Olympus E3?
    Discussion of this rumor in the dpreview forums. Origin of the rumor: Zone 10.


    PMA 2008 Prosumer and RAWsumer Predictions and Speculation
    Over at the RAWsumer blog we have a long list of predictions, speculation, rumors, and wishful thinking in the area of prosumers and RAWsumers. This discusses potential follow-ups to the Ricoh GX100, Panasonic LX2, Fuji S9100, E900, S6000fd, Canon long-zooms, Nikon P5100, Panasonic FZ50, Kodak P880, and lots more. Just like this post, everything is speculation, predictions, rumors, and wishful thinking!


    CES 2008 Predictions and Speculation
    This is a brand new self-contained post covering CES 2008 Predictions and Speculations.


    An Early Look at what we could see
  • The first round has already grown too long, so I am breaking it down into two categories, interchangeable lens cameras and fixed-lens cameras. Please keep in mind the following is a blend of speculation and rumors, and I have no inside knowledge (although I wish I did, Camera Manufacturers, reveal your secrets to me and I won't tell anyone! I promise!)


    Interchangeable Lens cameras Speculation (DSLRs, D-RF)



    Canon DSLRs

  • Canon to announce new products on January 24, 2008 according to a Canon Rep quoted by Kamerabild.se (Swedish site). More details at Photography Bay and Photography Blog

  • Canon 5D Mark II - overdue, especially after the big splash the Nikon D3/D300 duo has created. Will Canon manage to make a bigger splash or will it be sequential update to the 5D? The stakes are even higher now!

  • Canon 7D: Remember the bar code? With the 5D sliding down in price down to $2000, this gives Canon an opportunity to offer a 5D price-range replacement, while at the same time having the flexibility to boost the 5D Mark II price to the $3000 level. This would obviously be the first $2000ish 35mm full frame DSLR out of the box, and would create another exciting round of "Full frame vs DX". And give the Nikon D300 a headache.

  • Canon Digital Rebel XTi replacement (or follow-up). Will the 450D (aka Digital Rebel XT-something) jump to 12 megapixels just like the 400D XT jumped over the 30D in terms of megapixels?

  • What about the mythical Canon 3D? It looks like the closer thing we got to a Canon 3D is the ....Nikon D3. Ouch?



    Nikon DSLRs and Digital Rangefinders

  • Nikon Super Flagship (rumors said cost not an issue)

  • Nikon D3X, a flagship but not the super flagship that was rumored earlier

  • Nikon "affordable" full-frame (eg D3-ish sensor in D300 body). although this is probably more like a Photokina 2008.

  • Nikon Digital Rangefinder (remember that dual rumor with the very expensive flagship?)

  • Nikon D200s or D200x (refresher to match the Canon 40D in price?)

  • Nikon Modular. This mythical monster resurfaces every few months, but never sees the light of day. Is this the Loch Ness monster of digital cameras? I don't expect this type of thing this year.


    Pentax and Samsung DSLRs

  • Pentax K1D: Will Pentax go for a flagship type or rather with a...

  • Pentax K12D (there is a certain 12mp Sony sensor with a couple of variations)

  • Pentax 645D: What holds the future (if there is one) for this medium format DSLR?

  • Samsung version of the K100D Super? They already skipped the K100D and K110D

  • Update! Rumors of Pentax K20D and K200D have taken the Pentax world by storm.

  • Presumably we will see Samsung versions of the Pentax K20D and K200D? Or will this be the models they go in different directions? Or a combination? Or both? Or none?


    Everybody else

  • Sony A900, the flagship. Sony makes the sensors. The one Minolta fans had been waiting for a long time.

  • Sony A100 replacement. Let's call it A120 or A200, and assume that it will be using the 12mp sensor. Not a rocket scientist required to figure this one out. But will they also introduce a camera below the A100 for the masses? A 10mp A10 or A50 or something like that?

  • Leica: Will they release a Leica version of the Panasonic L10? Assuming of course this doesn't happen in late 2007. There are some whispers of a full frame Leica. Are they just wishful thinking of Leica fans or is there more to it? Latest rumor says that they might release (or announce) a Leica version of the Olympus E3 DSLR in 2008.

  • Zeiss: Will we get a digital rangefinder from them and their friends?

  • Contax: Will Sony or someone else try to revitalize this prestigious mount?

  • Fuji S7 Pro: Thom Hogan has predictions on a Fuji S7 Pro.

  • Will this be the year Vivitar introduces a 35mm full frame "Hello Kitty" DSLR for $99.95? :-)



    LENSES

  • NikonWatch talks Nikon lens rumors

  • Amin's Photo blog discusses the rumors of a remarkably small normal prime from Olympus. Rumors were found in the dpreview forums.

  • Blog reader "LensNut" submitted a rumor found in the dpreview forums of new version of the 17-85 IS lens. Details in the comments section and in the dpreview forums link.

  • Lens Directions: Will we continue to see the introduction of quality "digital lenses" or are the manufactures planning to fill up the future mid-range price-range cameras (the likes of 40D, A700, L10, E510/E3, D300, K10D, etc) with 35mm full frame models?


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    Fixed Lens Digital Cameras Speculation



    New Prosumers?

  • Sigma DP1: One wild rumor said that the BigFoot was spotted using the Sigma DP1 to take portrait pictures of the Loch Ness monster. We did have an official update from Sigma, essentially extending the uncertainty and the unknown by rebooting the camera in a way. Oh Shiguma, you had us at the initial development notice, but now you are losing us one by one.

  • Ricoh GRD2 (more than two years since the original GRD, this is a must!) Update! No longer a rumor or a dream, the Ricoh GRD2 is now a real product!

  • Ricoh GX120: Ricoh is not shy about releasing a new R-series camera every six months, but the GX-series is more advanced, so since they haven't announced them yet, PMA 2008 is a reasonable expectation. Will the new engine introduced with the R7 improve some of the out of the box JPEG results that troubled some of the reviewers?

  • Panasonic LX3: With the FX100 slotted in between the 1/2.5" FX-series and the LX-series, will the future LX-series grow up as well? Will we get one that is "slotted in" between the LX-series and the LC-series? Or perhaps slotted in between the LX-series and the big daddy FZ-series?

  • Will Kodak return to the prosumer segment? A recent Kodak interview seems to suggest so, but the last time they introduced a prosumer was over two years ago, the Kodak P880, which increased in popularity as it got "discovered" after the price drops.



    Super and Hyper Zooms

  • Casio's 6mp 1/1.8" 60fps 12x stabilized zoom camera that was development notice'd earlier this year

  • Did the 18X 1/2.5"-ish super zooms kill the 12X 1/1.7"-ish super zooms? Both Fuji and Panasonic have come up with 18X hyper zooms and they haven't yet announced follow-ups to their 12X bigger sensor zooms (FZ50, FZ30, S9100, S9000)

  • Canon's next superzoom camera. With a number of manufacturers going to 18x and 15x superzooms, Canon remains at 12x. They were already forced to crash the price of the S5 IS in order to compete. We know that Canon is usually among the last to jump on the latest fads, which is one of the reasons they have such impressive profit margins. But can they afford to remain at 12X while others improve their 18X superzooms?

  • Panasonic FZ60, or a wide-version of the FZ50 as a FZ55? What if they go with a huge 18x lens? That would make it a FZ80.



    Compact but Fun

  • Panasonic has found itself a blockbuster with the "fun zoom" TZ3. But the competition is trying their hand at the segment as well with the new Canon SX100 IS and the Sony H3. Nikon has had "fun zooms" but they never really caught on, the swiveling Coolpix S4 and S10 VR. Canon's first attempt was a failure by Canon standards, the TX-1. So with the competition coming up with new models, PMA 2008 will be the place Panasonic announces new TZ-series models. It would be reasonable to expect another duo given the success of the TZ-3. Let's just call them TZ-4 and TZ-5, with TZ5 being the main model, and the TZ4 being the more affordable one, sort of like the TZ3 and TZ2. One thing that people would like to see in the TZ-series is PSAM. Panasonic did this before, their cutesy FZ1 that started the FZ-series revolution did not have PSAM, but Panasonic added it to future models (and to the Japanese version of the FZ1 with a firmware update).

  • Pentax Optio A40 (we know that because of the battery shortage due to a Matsushita factory fire)

  • My crystal ball on Fuji shows a 120-megapixel replacement the Fuji F50fd using ten 12mp micro-SuperCCD sensors stitched together ;-) (in case it wasn't obvious, this is a joke!)


    Opinionated Questions

  • Will Fuji get inspired by Sony's 6mp sensor and revitalize their 6mp Fujji "magic" SuperCCD sensor found in such lovelies as the F31fd and S6000fd? If they don't want to make it for themselves, why not let Toshiba mass produce it for anyone who wants to use it in their cameras? I know a number of manufacturers that could benefit from the de-noising :) How about taking the F31fd body, adding a dual xD/SD drive and calling it F32fd? And we don't mind if it is avaialble in Apple Green, Mango Delight and Burnt Orange flavors. Or how about putting the 6mp "magic" sensor in the F50fd which is crawling with tiny noisy pixels?

  • Who else will follow Casio in introducing a new camera with the 60fps 6mp Sony sensor? Has Casio signed an exclusive agreement with Sony that's why they are the ony ones announcing it? That's one possibility, however a more likely scenario is this: With the exception of Pentax, Ricoh and HP, just about every other manufacturer has super zoom models in their line-ups. Pre-announcing a future 60fps camera would not exactly bode well for existing camera sales. So even if they are planning to fill up PMA 2008 with 60fps super zooms, they have to keep it a secret. Casio on the other hand, had everything to gain and nothing to lose with this announcement. They currently don't have any super zoom cameras, and their current line-up consists of cutesy ultra-compacts. The 60fps superzoom announcement creates some buzz about their brand and gives them some "photo-cred" (the equilvalent of street-cred among amateur/pro photographers). This has the tide lift all boats effect as they may take a look at their existing cutesy cameras, so instead of getting their loved ones a cutesy Canon Elph or Sony T-series for the holidays, they could get them a cutesy Casio Exilim.


    Can't Wait? Need a camera now?
    While all the speculation and rumors are exciting and fun, these cameras only live in our imaginations and perhaps the manufacturer's labs. If you want or need a camera right now, then you can pick up one from these fine retailers:
  • B&H Photo
  • Calumet Photo
  • Amazon.com
  • Adobe USA Store
  • Adorama
  • OneCall.com
  • eBay.com
  • More of our favorite retailers and your shopping destinations.


    More Coming Up
  • This will be continually updated until the PMA 2008 show kicks off in late January 2008.
  •  Subscribe to our blog feed to get all our latest posts delivered directly to your feed reader.


    Other Blogs and Sites with rumors, predictions and speculations


  • Thom Hogan posts his 2008 predictions
  • Photography Bay
  • The official PMA 2008 blog has a round-up
  • NikonWatch discusses this post
  • Also at David Ziser's Digital Pro Talk
  • Also featured at PhotoNewsToday


    These are rumors and speculations
    In case it wasn't clear in the title, this post is a blend of rumors/rumours and speculation and predictions for PMA 2008 and beyond. This is a forward-looking speculative post, based on rumors and speculation. This is not a purchase order. Just because a hypothetical camera is mentioned here, there are no guarantees it will be an actual product. That's the whole point of rumors and speculation. And here is the Wiki page explaining what a rumor in case I wasn't able to explain it clearly :) If you are not interested in rumors/speculation, then perhaps you might be interested in the the cameras that have already been announced, in reverse chronological order.


    This article is a work in progress
    This is a work in progress post that will continue to be updated and grow longer and longer over time. If it grows too long, I will split it by company name, just like I did for Fauxtokina 2007.


    For (f)actual news, check the PMA Newsline!
    For actual news, be sure to check the official PMA Newsline.


    PMA 2008 Flickr Group!
    Jump aboard the Flickr group talking all things PMA 2008!

  • 8 comments:

    lensnut said...

    According to this post in the dpreview forums:

    http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/readflat.asp?forum=1029&thread=26020139

    Canon may release a new version of the 17-85 IS lens for PMA, with a 3.5-5.6 aperture range, new IS system (the one found in the 18-55 IS) and an UD element to fix the aberrations this lens is known for.

    1001 noisy cameras said...

    Thanks for the tip! That sounds like a good idea. It's also nice that sensor-shift stabilization has caused more affordable stand-aloen IS/OS/VR/MegaOIS lenses!

    I should create a Lens segment when I do the next update to this post.

    amin said...

    Check this out: http://www.rangefinderforum.com/forums/showthread.php?t=53551
    I think it's BS, but I'm surprised to see it attributed to a legit Leica distributor. Also, US Leica distributor Tony Rose seems to be taking it seriously. If real, I think this is a major mistake for Leica.

    1001 noisy cameras said...

    Thanks for the update! This is quite interesting!

    So if this is true, Leica would essentially be taking a faux-modular approach by upgrading the current camera.

    amin said...

    Looking more and more true. Tony Rose from Popflash took the word seriously, and Stephen Gandy from CameraQuest has confirmed it is a reality.

    1001 noisy cameras said...

    Wow, this is an interesting development. So the M8 will be a faux-modular camera. It will be interesting to see what else Leica does - in terms of R-series, and re-branded Panasonics, and then there was the rumor of a rebranded E3.

    amin said...

    Check this out: http://www.l-camera-forum.com/leica-forum/leica-m8-forum/44588-m8-upgrade-s-official.html

    Do you think they can pull off sensor exchanges in the future?

    1001 noisy cameras said...

    Thanks for the update! Let me convert the link to HTML, apparently Blogger does not convert them automatically. Amin's link is at the L-Camera Forum.

    I am not a sensor or camera internals expert, so I don't know what it would involve to do that, but if Leica is committed to taking the M8, opening it up, putting new stuff inside, and shipping it back, I am guessing new sensors should be doable as well? If they could put something in there originally, they should be able to replace all necessary parts and repackage it!

    So I guess it could be the first faux-modular camera by design - or rather by intention :)

    I think Kodak had a similar thing, but it was a one-off thing to fix all the problems with their original 14mp FF camera.